There is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 C above the pre-industrial level for at least one of the next five years – and the likelihood is increasing with time, according to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

There is a 93 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking. The chance of the five-year average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93 per cent, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet,” said WMO secretary-general Prof. Petteri Taalas.

In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1 C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate.

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