A more ambitious EU renewables target could save €200bn and halve fossil gas imports by 2030. Failing to do so would result in continued over-reliance on imported fossil gas and exposure to the many associated economic, political, reputational and climate risks.

The conclusion comes from a report from Ember, Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas, that proposes raising the 40 per cent renewables target the EU currently has to 45 per cent. This could equate to €43bn in additional savings per year by 2030 compared to the current target. Extrapolating back, the higher target could achieve potential savings of €200bn between 2025 and 2030.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission launched its REPowerEU plan (RPE) and proposed increasing the required share of renewable energy sources (RES) in EU final energy consumption to 45 per cent by 2030. This RES share is higher than the 40 per cent proposed by the Commission in its Fit for 55 (FF55) plan, which was adopted in July 2021.

"Just one small step up for renewables would see a giant fall in gas imports. [The EU] has already made great progress towards ditching its fossil gas addiction, it cannot stumble near the finish line. It must seize this opportunity to go the extra mile. The benefits of additional investment far outweigh the costs of insufficient ambition,” said Sarah Brown, a senior analyst at Ember.

Ember argues that fossil gas diversification through increased Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports is not the solution and is simply replacing one risky dependency with another exposing the EU to global price spikes and supply constraints, and that the ‘rush for gas’ is also damaging its international reputation and harming developing economies, with countries in Asia being unable to secure LNG supplies.

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