Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are on course to surge by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021 – the second-largest increase in history – reversing most of last year’s decline caused by the pandemic, a new IEA report predicts. This would be the biggest annual rise in emissions since 2010, during the carbon-intensive recovery from the global financial crisis.

The IEA’s Global Energy Review 2021 estimates that CO2 emissions will increase by almost 5 per cent this year to 33 billion tonnes, based on the latest national data from around the world as well as real-time analysis of economic growth trends and new energy projects that are set to come online.
The key driver is coal demand, which is set to grow by 4.5 per cent, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014, with the electricity sector accounting for three-quarters of this increase.

The expected rise in coal use dwarfs that of renewables by almost 60 per cent, despite accelerating demand for renewables. More than 80 per cent of the projected growth in coal demand in 2021 is set to come from Asia, led by China. Coal use in the US and the EU is also on course to increase but will remain below pre-crisis levels.

In better news, electricity generation from renewables is set to increase by over 8 per cent in 2021, accounting for more than half of the increase in overall electricity supply worldwide. The biggest contribution to that growth comes from solar and wind, which are on track for their largest annual rise in history.

Renewables are set to provide 30 per cent of electricity generation worldwide in 2021, their biggest share of the power mix since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and up from less than 27 per cent in 2019. China is expected to account for almost half of the global increase in electricity generation from renewables, followed by the US.

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