Electricity generated from coal could hit a new annual record in 2021, undermining efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially putting global coal demand on course for an all-time high next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual market report.

After falling in 2019 and 2020, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9 per cent in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350TW-hours, according to the IEA’s Coal 2021 report. The rebound is being driven by this year’s rapid economic recovery, which has pushed up electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The steep rise in natural gas prices has also increased demand for coal power by making it more cost-competitive.

“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net-zero,” said IEA Executive Director Faith Birol. “Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming to 1.5C.”

In China, where more than half of global coal-fired electricity generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow by 9 per cent in 2021 despite a deceleration at the end of the year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12 per cent. While coal power generation is set to increase by almost 20 per cent this year in the United States and the EU, but coal use in those two markets is expected to go back into decline next year amid slow electricity demand growth and rapid expansion of renewable power.

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