There is a 40 per cent chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years – and these odds are increasing with time, according to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Perhaps just as worrying, there is a 90 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK Met Office.

“These are more than just statistics,” said WMO secretary-general Prof Petteri Taalas. “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.”

In 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April. It highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update confirms that trend. In the coming five years, the annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1C warmer - within the range 0.9C – 1.8C - than preindustrial levels.

The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C has roughly doubled compared to last year’s predictions. This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators. It is very unlikely (10 per cent) that the 5 year mean annual global temperature for the entire 2021-2025 period will be 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels, according to the climate update.

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