DNV predicts that without swift action the UK is currently on course to miss its 2030 NDC target and its legally binding mid-century decarbonisation target.

The Government must prioritise long-term policy clarity and consistency to create an investable market-place for energy transition financiers to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels, says DNV in its 2024 UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report. Even with the massive scaling of renewables, the UK remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for at least the next decade and beyond, necessitating the acceleration of decarbonisation efforts for example carbon capture or use of hydrogen.

DNV forecasts show that without this acceleration, the UK’s annual emissions will amount to some 125 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2050, and while this represents a significant 85 per cent reduction relative to 1990 levels, but not the 100 per cent reduction by mid-century that the UK has legislated for.

However, the report finds that the energy transition is affordable and that domestic consumers will benefit from an almost 40 per cent reduction in household energy bills by mid-century as the share of renewables increase, when compared with 2021 prices, with an overall reduction in energy demand driven by increased electrification.

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